Four senior energy ecoomists have issued a stark warning to policy makers on the UK’s shale gas – ‘don’t expect there to be any!’

In an article published by Warwick Business School, ‘Conditions for environmentally sound UK shale gas development‘, they advise policy makers:

“Given the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale gas and its potential role in a low-carbon transition, we suggest that policy makers should take as their basis for energy policy that there will be no shale gas produced domestically and plan their gas security strategy accordingly.”

The authors, Professor Paul Ekins and Dr Christophe McGlade of UCL, Professor Michael Bradshaw, of Warwick Business School and Professor Jim Watson of UKERC, point to the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale and its potential role in low-carbon transition.

Ten serious hurdles for frackers to overcome

And while the UK may be able to develop some of its potential shale gas resources within the context of a global effort to keep average global warming within 2C, they set out ten caveats that they consider “fundamental to ensuring that any potential shale gas development in the UK is compatible with its required greenhouse gas emission reductions and environmental protection more broadly.”

1. There must be viable resources. “As recognised by the British Geological Survey in the report on the Bowland shale, at present there are no UK shale gas reserves, and next-to-no information or data on volumes that could be considered to be recoverable resources. Whether any will be resources that are recoverable in an economically viable way is unknown, despite frequent claims to the contrary, and this is self-evidently necessary for there to be any development of UK shale gas.”

2. No stalling on the path to low carbon power. “In the UK a danger of promoting the increased use of gas for electricity generation is that there may be a stalling in the necessary shift towards lower-carbon sources of electricity … Indeed, it could be argued that the UK government is planning for this … such a development would be tantamount to an abandonment of the UK’s contribution to limiting global warming to 2C.”

3. Need for carbon capture and storage. “Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is key to the development of new gas resources, shale or otherwise … If CCS does not become available commercially soon, it is unlikely that there will be much scope within available carbon budgets for significant UK and European gas consumption beyond 2050. This calls into question the wisdom of developing a whole new UK shale gas industry for such a limited period of operation.”

4. The main effort lies elsewhere. “Gas can only be a short-term complement to the much larger increase in true low-carbon energy sources that must also occur to substitute for coal, and ultimately for gas too, in order for the low-carbon transition actually to be achieved.”

5. Time is against shale gas. “The bridge formed by natural gas to a low-carbon energy system, and by extension the timeframe for the development of shale gas to help reduce GHG emissions, is strictly time-limited.”

6. It must be accompanied by major emissions reductions. “The development of some shale gas resources is only helpful if there is real global commitment to CO2 emissions reduction. In the absence of such an agreement additional natural gas is not helpful for reducing emissions. The IEA modelled a ‘Golden Age of Gas’ scenario, based upon the widespread availability and development of new gas sources (including shale gas). This resulted in 3.5C of global warming … Under such circumstances the development of shale gas could not in any way be viewed as a positive emissions reduction mechanism.”

7. It’s a zero sum game – so more unburnable carbon. “Policy makers and advocates for UK shale gas development will need to recognise that, if new resources are to be developed in the UK, then fewer fossil fuel reserves need to be developed as a result elsewhere. All countries and regions already hold significant levels of ‘unburnable’ reserves, which will be increased by new UK production, if commitments to limit global warming are to be met.”

8. Gas leaks could wipe out all the ‘benefits’. “The level of fugitive emissions that occurs during production needs to be determined and managed. The literature on this issue is not yet at a mature enough stage to have any confidence on what a reasonable range for fugitive emissions might be. If they are non-negligible the usefulness of shale gas as a lower-carbon bridge fuel diminishes rapidly.”

9. Shale development is no free for all. “Development of shale gas cannot occur in an unrestricted manner … 80% of potential European unconventional gas resources should still be classified as unburnable under a cost-optimal 2C scenario.”

10. Wider environmental impacts must be contained. “Local environmental impacts, including those from waste disposal, toxicity, noise and water pollution, groundwater contamination, induced seismicity, water use in water-deficient areas, and flaring, are appropriately regulated, controlled or avoided. Convincing the public that these risks can be minimised and managed is essential to gaining a ‘social licence to operate’, which the shale gas industry does not yet have in a UK context.”

The authors conclude: “While we are not against shale gas exploration in principle, we believe that it is incumbent upon the shale gas industry and its supporters, and the Government, to demonstrate that the above conditions are met, as most if not all of them are not at present.

“Only then should shale gas production be permitted to proceed in the event that it is proved to be economically viable, in the knowledge that it is consistent with a decarbonised UK energy system and environmental protection more generally.”

The paper: ‘Conditions for environmentally-sound UK shale gas development‘ is by Dr Christophe McGlade and Professor Paul Ekins, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and UCL Energy Institute, University College London; Professor Michael Bradshaw, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick; and Professor Jim Watson, UK Energy Research Centre.

Four senior energy ecoomists have issued a stark warning to policy makers on the UK’s shale gas – ‘don’t expect there to be any!’

In an article published by Warwick Business School, ‘Conditions for environmentally sound UK shale gas development‘, they advise policy makers:

“Given the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale gas and its potential role in a low-carbon transition, we suggest that policy makers should take as their basis for energy policy that there will be no shale gas produced domestically and plan their gas security strategy accordingly.”

The authors, Professor Paul Ekins and Dr Christophe McGlade of UCL, Professor Michael Bradshaw, of Warwick Business School and Professor Jim Watson of UKERC, point to the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale and its potential role in low-carbon transition.

Ten serious hurdles for frackers to overcome

And while the UK may be able to develop some of its potential shale gas resources within the context of a global effort to keep average global warming within 2C, they set out ten caveats that they consider “fundamental to ensuring that any potential shale gas development in the UK is compatible with its required greenhouse gas emission reductions and environmental protection more broadly.”

1. There must be viable resources. “As recognised by the British Geological Survey in the report on the Bowland shale, at present there are no UK shale gas reserves, and next-to-no information or data on volumes that could be considered to be recoverable resources. Whether any will be resources that are recoverable in an economically viable way is unknown, despite frequent claims to the contrary, and this is self-evidently necessary for there to be any development of UK shale gas.”

2. No stalling on the path to low carbon power. “In the UK a danger of promoting the increased use of gas for electricity generation is that there may be a stalling in the necessary shift towards lower-carbon sources of electricity … Indeed, it could be argued that the UK government is planning for this … such a development would be tantamount to an abandonment of the UK’s contribution to limiting global warming to 2C.”

3. Need for carbon capture and storage. “Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is key to the development of new gas resources, shale or otherwise … If CCS does not become available commercially soon, it is unlikely that there will be much scope within available carbon budgets for significant UK and European gas consumption beyond 2050. This calls into question the wisdom of developing a whole new UK shale gas industry for such a limited period of operation.”

4. The main effort lies elsewhere. “Gas can only be a short-term complement to the much larger increase in true low-carbon energy sources that must also occur to substitute for coal, and ultimately for gas too, in order for the low-carbon transition actually to be achieved.”

5. Time is against shale gas. “The bridge formed by natural gas to a low-carbon energy system, and by extension the timeframe for the development of shale gas to help reduce GHG emissions, is strictly time-limited.”

6. It must be accompanied by major emissions reductions. “The development of some shale gas resources is only helpful if there is real global commitment to CO2 emissions reduction. In the absence of such an agreement additional natural gas is not helpful for reducing emissions. The IEA modelled a ‘Golden Age of Gas’ scenario, based upon the widespread availability and development of new gas sources (including shale gas). This resulted in 3.5C of global warming … Under such circumstances the development of shale gas could not in any way be viewed as a positive emissions reduction mechanism.”

7. It’s a zero sum game – so more unburnable carbon. “Policy makers and advocates for UK shale gas development will need to recognise that, if new resources are to be developed in the UK, then fewer fossil fuel reserves need to be developed as a result elsewhere. All countries and regions already hold significant levels of ‘unburnable’ reserves, which will be increased by new UK production, if commitments to limit global warming are to be met.”

8. Gas leaks could wipe out all the ‘benefits’. “The level of fugitive emissions that occurs during production needs to be determined and managed. The literature on this issue is not yet at a mature enough stage to have any confidence on what a reasonable range for fugitive emissions might be. If they are non-negligible the usefulness of shale gas as a lower-carbon bridge fuel diminishes rapidly.”

9. Shale development is no free for all. “Development of shale gas cannot occur in an unrestricted manner … 80% of potential European unconventional gas resources should still be classified as unburnable under a cost-optimal 2C scenario.”

10. Wider environmental impacts must be contained. “Local environmental impacts, including those from waste disposal, toxicity, noise and water pollution, groundwater contamination, induced seismicity, water use in water-deficient areas, and flaring, are appropriately regulated, controlled or avoided. Convincing the public that these risks can be minimised and managed is essential to gaining a ‘social licence to operate’, which the shale gas industry does not yet have in a UK context.”

The authors conclude: “While we are not against shale gas exploration in principle, we believe that it is incumbent upon the shale gas industry and its supporters, and the Government, to demonstrate that the above conditions are met, as most if not all of them are not at present.

“Only then should shale gas production be permitted to proceed in the event that it is proved to be economically viable, in the knowledge that it is consistent with a decarbonised UK energy system and environmental protection more generally.”

The paper: ‘Conditions for environmentally-sound UK shale gas development‘ is by Dr Christophe McGlade and Professor Paul Ekins, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and UCL Energy Institute, University College London; Professor Michael Bradshaw, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick; and Professor Jim Watson, UK Energy Research Centre.

If anyone tries to convince you that TTIP is no threat to a government’s ability to protect its people, just point them to Canada.

Last week, Canada’s government was successfully sued for daring to turn down a large mining quarry which threatened to cause environmental damage in Nova Scotia.

It is the latest in a long line of cases which have been brought against Canada for attempting to introduce environmental protection, under NAFTA – the North America Free Trade Agreement. These cases have been brought about under exactly the same mechanism – known as ISDS (Investor State Dispute Settlement) – which is at the centre of the TTIP deal.

ISDS is essentially a corporate court system – allowing foreign corporations to sue governments in secret tribunals, overseen by corporate lawyers, with no right of appeal. Even winning can cost a country a small fortune in legal costs.

Canada has to pay $100s of millions in ‘compensation’

The most recent ruling focuses on Canada’s decision, following an environmental review, to block the White’s Point 152-hectare basalt quarry on Digby Neck in Nova Scotia – which happens to be a key breeding area for cetaceans, increasingly popular among whale-watchers.

Among the species regularly frequenting nearby waters are Finback Whales, Minke Whales, Harbor Porpoises, Humpback Whales, Whitesided Dolphins, the endangered North Atlantic Right Whale, and there have been sightings of Pilot, Beluga, Sei, Sperm Whales and Orcas.

US corporation Bilcon wanted to open the quarry and argued that it had put time and money into the development. The province’s environmental review, however, found that the project clashed with “community core values“, and the quarry blasting and shipping movements would be detrimental to the area’s cetaceans.

The company argued that the government shouldn’t even have resorted to an environmental review. It has now won its case before the NAFTA arbitration panel, which ruled in its 260-page judgment that Bilcon was “denied a fair environmental hearing”. It is now demanding $300 million in compensation.

Two aspects of this case prove what critics have always said about these corporate courts. First, the case didn’t relate to a breach of contract or to discrimination in favour of a domestic company. It simply related to a regulation which a foreign corporation didn’t like.

Second, the case is a challenge to Canada’s ability to make decisions based on environmental protection, as pointed out by the one dissenting voice in this tribunal, that of Ottawa law professor Donald McRae who warned:

“A chill will be imposed on environmental review panels which will be concerned not to give too much weight to socio-economic considerations or other considerations of the human environment in case the result is a claim for damages under NAFTA.”

The ruling, he continued “will be seen as a remarkable step backwards in environmental protection” and a “significant intrusion into domestic jurisdiction.”

Environmental protection subordinate to corporate profit

Canada has been sued for environmental protection regulations again and again. Previous cases include Canada being taken to task for attempting to ban the import of toxic waste and for trying to prohibit dangerous chemical MMT from petrol. In the latter case, Canada reversed its ban.

And only days before the Bilcon ruling, Canada had a $17.3-million award made against it for a regulation which required oil giant Exxon Mobil and Murphy Oil (along with other offshore oil producers) to invest some of their profits from offshore drilling in the local economy.

It has been suggested that unless the requirement is withdrawn, this will be the tip of the iceberg in terms of ‘compensation’ – another example of a completely moderate and sensible government regulation being threatened by unelected, unaccountable corporate lawyers. 

It is often claimed that these corporate courts ‘only’ effect developing countries with dubious standards of law. That would be bad enough, but Canada is not a developing country, yet has lost millions of dollars to these corporate courts after signing an investment deal like TTIP with the US. These cases should be instructive to European governments.

The European Commission is keen to tell us that they are reforming the corporate court procedure for TTIP, so there’s no need to worry. But from what we’ve seen of such reforms to date, they may actually make matters worse. Veteran investment arbitrator Todd Weiler said of the reformed system:

“I love it, the new Canadian-EU treaty … we used to have to argue about all of those [foreign investor rights] … And now we have this great list. I just love it when they try to explain things.”

In the UK, the political divide is laid bare

In a ground-breaking report, the House of Commons Business Select Committee came out today saying it wasn’t convinced of the need for the corporate court system. Against them are ranged Conservatives and Liberal Democrats who support TTIP and its ISDS provisions, often with great enthusiasm.

Lobbying of MPs and MEPs has shown that Labour representatives are looking for significant reform of ISDS before they will be persuaded to vote for CETA or TTIP, while Green Party, SNP and UKIP MEPs are voting against the deal.

It has recently been flagged by a number of US Senate Democrats as a reason to oppose TTIP. 

Negotiations on TTIP between the EU and the US are continuing, amid reports of “problems” over the inclusion of ISDS in the agreement. In an earlier public consultation on ISDS in TTIP, over 150,000 respondents participated – 97% of them opposing ISDS. The next round of negotiations will take place in Washington DC in the week starting 20th April.

Canada’s experience shows why it’s important for progressive politicians to stick to their guns – and for those now supporting ISDS to rethink their position. The corporate court system fundamentally challenges our ability to protect the environment. However you reform it, it has no role in a democratic society.

Action: an International Day of Action against all ‘free trade’ deals is planned for Saturday 18 April in association with Stop TTIP.

Sign an EU-wide petition against TTIP – it already has 1.6 million signatures and has a target of 2 million by October 2015.

Nick Dearden is director of the Global Justice Now (formerly World Development Movement), and former director of the Jubilee Debt Campaign.

This article is an updated version of one first published by Global Justice Now.

Four senior energy ecoomists have issued a stark warning to policy makers on the UK’s shale gas – ‘don’t expect there to be any!’

In an article published by Warwick Business School, ‘Conditions for environmentally sound UK shale gas development‘, they advise policy makers:

“Given the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale gas and its potential role in a low-carbon transition, we suggest that policy makers should take as their basis for energy policy that there will be no shale gas produced domestically and plan their gas security strategy accordingly.”

The authors, Professor Paul Ekins and Dr Christophe McGlade of UCL, Professor Michael Bradshaw, of Warwick Business School and Professor Jim Watson of UKERC, point to the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale and its potential role in low-carbon transition.

Ten serious hurdles for frackers to overcome

And while the UK may be able to develop some of its potential shale gas resources within the context of a global effort to keep average global warming within 2C, they set out ten caveats that they consider “fundamental to ensuring that any potential shale gas development in the UK is compatible with its required greenhouse gas emission reductions and environmental protection more broadly.”

1. There must be viable resources. “As recognised by the British Geological Survey in the report on the Bowland shale, at present there are no UK shale gas reserves, and next-to-no information or data on volumes that could be considered to be recoverable resources. Whether any will be resources that are recoverable in an economically viable way is unknown, despite frequent claims to the contrary, and this is self-evidently necessary for there to be any development of UK shale gas.”

2. No stalling on the path to low carbon power. “In the UK a danger of promoting the increased use of gas for electricity generation is that there may be a stalling in the necessary shift towards lower-carbon sources of electricity … Indeed, it could be argued that the UK government is planning for this … such a development would be tantamount to an abandonment of the UK’s contribution to limiting global warming to 2C.”

3. Need for carbon capture and storage. “Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is key to the development of new gas resources, shale or otherwise … If CCS does not become available commercially soon, it is unlikely that there will be much scope within available carbon budgets for significant UK and European gas consumption beyond 2050. This calls into question the wisdom of developing a whole new UK shale gas industry for such a limited period of operation.”

4. The main effort lies elsewhere. “Gas can only be a short-term complement to the much larger increase in true low-carbon energy sources that must also occur to substitute for coal, and ultimately for gas too, in order for the low-carbon transition actually to be achieved.”

5. Time is against shale gas. “The bridge formed by natural gas to a low-carbon energy system, and by extension the timeframe for the development of shale gas to help reduce GHG emissions, is strictly time-limited.”

6. It must be accompanied by major emissions reductions. “The development of some shale gas resources is only helpful if there is real global commitment to CO2 emissions reduction. In the absence of such an agreement additional natural gas is not helpful for reducing emissions. The IEA modelled a ‘Golden Age of Gas’ scenario, based upon the widespread availability and development of new gas sources (including shale gas). This resulted in 3.5C of global warming … Under such circumstances the development of shale gas could not in any way be viewed as a positive emissions reduction mechanism.”

7. It’s a zero sum game – so more unburnable carbon. “Policy makers and advocates for UK shale gas development will need to recognise that, if new resources are to be developed in the UK, then fewer fossil fuel reserves need to be developed as a result elsewhere. All countries and regions already hold significant levels of ‘unburnable’ reserves, which will be increased by new UK production, if commitments to limit global warming are to be met.”

8. Gas leaks could wipe out all the ‘benefits’. “The level of fugitive emissions that occurs during production needs to be determined and managed. The literature on this issue is not yet at a mature enough stage to have any confidence on what a reasonable range for fugitive emissions might be. If they are non-negligible the usefulness of shale gas as a lower-carbon bridge fuel diminishes rapidly.”

9. Shale development is no free for all. “Development of shale gas cannot occur in an unrestricted manner … 80% of potential European unconventional gas resources should still be classified as unburnable under a cost-optimal 2C scenario.”

10. Wider environmental impacts must be contained. “Local environmental impacts, including those from waste disposal, toxicity, noise and water pollution, groundwater contamination, induced seismicity, water use in water-deficient areas, and flaring, are appropriately regulated, controlled or avoided. Convincing the public that these risks can be minimised and managed is essential to gaining a ‘social licence to operate’, which the shale gas industry does not yet have in a UK context.”

The authors conclude: “While we are not against shale gas exploration in principle, we believe that it is incumbent upon the shale gas industry and its supporters, and the Government, to demonstrate that the above conditions are met, as most if not all of them are not at present.

“Only then should shale gas production be permitted to proceed in the event that it is proved to be economically viable, in the knowledge that it is consistent with a decarbonised UK energy system and environmental protection more generally.”

The paper: ‘Conditions for environmentally-sound UK shale gas development‘ is by Dr Christophe McGlade and Professor Paul Ekins, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and UCL Energy Institute, University College London; Professor Michael Bradshaw, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick; and Professor Jim Watson, UK Energy Research Centre.

Four senior energy ecoomists have issued a stark warning to policy makers on the UK’s shale gas – ‘don’t expect there to be any!’

In an article published by Warwick Business School, ‘Conditions for environmentally sound UK shale gas development‘, they advise policy makers:

“Given the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale gas and its potential role in a low-carbon transition, we suggest that policy makers should take as their basis for energy policy that there will be no shale gas produced domestically and plan their gas security strategy accordingly.”

The authors, Professor Paul Ekins and Dr Christophe McGlade of UCL, Professor Michael Bradshaw, of Warwick Business School and Professor Jim Watson of UKERC, point to the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale and its potential role in low-carbon transition.

Ten serious hurdles for frackers to overcome

And while the UK may be able to develop some of its potential shale gas resources within the context of a global effort to keep average global warming within 2C, they set out ten caveats that they consider “fundamental to ensuring that any potential shale gas development in the UK is compatible with its required greenhouse gas emission reductions and environmental protection more broadly.”

1. There must be viable resources. “As recognised by the British Geological Survey in the report on the Bowland shale, at present there are no UK shale gas reserves, and next-to-no information or data on volumes that could be considered to be recoverable resources. Whether any will be resources that are recoverable in an economically viable way is unknown, despite frequent claims to the contrary, and this is self-evidently necessary for there to be any development of UK shale gas.”

2. No stalling on the path to low carbon power. “In the UK a danger of promoting the increased use of gas for electricity generation is that there may be a stalling in the necessary shift towards lower-carbon sources of electricity … Indeed, it could be argued that the UK government is planning for this … such a development would be tantamount to an abandonment of the UK’s contribution to limiting global warming to 2C.”

3. Need for carbon capture and storage. “Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is key to the development of new gas resources, shale or otherwise … If CCS does not become available commercially soon, it is unlikely that there will be much scope within available carbon budgets for significant UK and European gas consumption beyond 2050. This calls into question the wisdom of developing a whole new UK shale gas industry for such a limited period of operation.”

4. The main effort lies elsewhere. “Gas can only be a short-term complement to the much larger increase in true low-carbon energy sources that must also occur to substitute for coal, and ultimately for gas too, in order for the low-carbon transition actually to be achieved.”

5. Time is against shale gas. “The bridge formed by natural gas to a low-carbon energy system, and by extension the timeframe for the development of shale gas to help reduce GHG emissions, is strictly time-limited.”

6. It must be accompanied by major emissions reductions. “The development of some shale gas resources is only helpful if there is real global commitment to CO2 emissions reduction. In the absence of such an agreement additional natural gas is not helpful for reducing emissions. The IEA modelled a ‘Golden Age of Gas’ scenario, based upon the widespread availability and development of new gas sources (including shale gas). This resulted in 3.5C of global warming … Under such circumstances the development of shale gas could not in any way be viewed as a positive emissions reduction mechanism.”

7. It’s a zero sum game – so more unburnable carbon. “Policy makers and advocates for UK shale gas development will need to recognise that, if new resources are to be developed in the UK, then fewer fossil fuel reserves need to be developed as a result elsewhere. All countries and regions already hold significant levels of ‘unburnable’ reserves, which will be increased by new UK production, if commitments to limit global warming are to be met.”

8. Gas leaks could wipe out all the ‘benefits’. “The level of fugitive emissions that occurs during production needs to be determined and managed. The literature on this issue is not yet at a mature enough stage to have any confidence on what a reasonable range for fugitive emissions might be. If they are non-negligible the usefulness of shale gas as a lower-carbon bridge fuel diminishes rapidly.”

9. Shale development is no free for all. “Development of shale gas cannot occur in an unrestricted manner … 80% of potential European unconventional gas resources should still be classified as unburnable under a cost-optimal 2C scenario.”

10. Wider environmental impacts must be contained. “Local environmental impacts, including those from waste disposal, toxicity, noise and water pollution, groundwater contamination, induced seismicity, water use in water-deficient areas, and flaring, are appropriately regulated, controlled or avoided. Convincing the public that these risks can be minimised and managed is essential to gaining a ‘social licence to operate’, which the shale gas industry does not yet have in a UK context.”

The authors conclude: “While we are not against shale gas exploration in principle, we believe that it is incumbent upon the shale gas industry and its supporters, and the Government, to demonstrate that the above conditions are met, as most if not all of them are not at present.

“Only then should shale gas production be permitted to proceed in the event that it is proved to be economically viable, in the knowledge that it is consistent with a decarbonised UK energy system and environmental protection more generally.”

The paper: ‘Conditions for environmentally-sound UK shale gas development‘ is by Dr Christophe McGlade and Professor Paul Ekins, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and UCL Energy Institute, University College London; Professor Michael Bradshaw, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick; and Professor Jim Watson, UK Energy Research Centre.

Four senior energy ecoomists have issued a stark warning to policy makers on the UK’s shale gas – ‘don’t expect there to be any!’

In an article published by Warwick Business School, ‘Conditions for environmentally sound UK shale gas development‘, they advise policy makers:

“Given the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale gas and its potential role in a low-carbon transition, we suggest that policy makers should take as their basis for energy policy that there will be no shale gas produced domestically and plan their gas security strategy accordingly.”

The authors, Professor Paul Ekins and Dr Christophe McGlade of UCL, Professor Michael Bradshaw, of Warwick Business School and Professor Jim Watson of UKERC, point to the current incomplete state of knowledge about shale and its potential role in low-carbon transition.

Ten serious hurdles for frackers to overcome

And while the UK may be able to develop some of its potential shale gas resources within the context of a global effort to keep average global warming within 2C, they set out ten caveats that they consider “fundamental to ensuring that any potential shale gas development in the UK is compatible with its required greenhouse gas emission reductions and environmental protection more broadly.”

1. There must be viable resources. “As recognised by the British Geological Survey in the report on the Bowland shale, at present there are no UK shale gas reserves, and next-to-no information or data on volumes that could be considered to be recoverable resources. Whether any will be resources that are recoverable in an economically viable way is unknown, despite frequent claims to the contrary, and this is self-evidently necessary for there to be any development of UK shale gas.”

2. No stalling on the path to low carbon power. “In the UK a danger of promoting the increased use of gas for electricity generation is that there may be a stalling in the necessary shift towards lower-carbon sources of electricity … Indeed, it could be argued that the UK government is planning for this … such a development would be tantamount to an abandonment of the UK’s contribution to limiting global warming to 2C.”

3. Need for carbon capture and storage. “Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is key to the development of new gas resources, shale or otherwise … If CCS does not become available commercially soon, it is unlikely that there will be much scope within available carbon budgets for significant UK and European gas consumption beyond 2050. This calls into question the wisdom of developing a whole new UK shale gas industry for such a limited period of operation.”

4. The main effort lies elsewhere. “Gas can only be a short-term complement to the much larger increase in true low-carbon energy sources that must also occur to substitute for coal, and ultimately for gas too, in order for the low-carbon transition actually to be achieved.”

5. Time is against shale gas. “The bridge formed by natural gas to a low-carbon energy system, and by extension the timeframe for the development of shale gas to help reduce GHG emissions, is strictly time-limited.”

6. It must be accompanied by major emissions reductions. “The development of some shale gas resources is only helpful if there is real global commitment to CO2 emissions reduction. In the absence of such an agreement additional natural gas is not helpful for reducing emissions. The IEA modelled a ‘Golden Age of Gas’ scenario, based upon the widespread availability and development of new gas sources (including shale gas). This resulted in 3.5C of global warming … Under such circumstances the development of shale gas could not in any way be viewed as a positive emissions reduction mechanism.”

7. It’s a zero sum game – so more unburnable carbon. “Policy makers and advocates for UK shale gas development will need to recognise that, if new resources are to be developed in the UK, then fewer fossil fuel reserves need to be developed as a result elsewhere. All countries and regions already hold significant levels of ‘unburnable’ reserves, which will be increased by new UK production, if commitments to limit global warming are to be met.”

8. Gas leaks could wipe out all the ‘benefits’. “The level of fugitive emissions that occurs during production needs to be determined and managed. The literature on this issue is not yet at a mature enough stage to have any confidence on what a reasonable range for fugitive emissions might be. If they are non-negligible the usefulness of shale gas as a lower-carbon bridge fuel diminishes rapidly.”

9. Shale development is no free for all. “Development of shale gas cannot occur in an unrestricted manner … 80% of potential European unconventional gas resources should still be classified as unburnable under a cost-optimal 2C scenario.”

10. Wider environmental impacts must be contained. “Local environmental impacts, including those from waste disposal, toxicity, noise and water pollution, groundwater contamination, induced seismicity, water use in water-deficient areas, and flaring, are appropriately regulated, controlled or avoided. Convincing the public that these risks can be minimised and managed is essential to gaining a ‘social licence to operate’, which the shale gas industry does not yet have in a UK context.”

The authors conclude: “While we are not against shale gas exploration in principle, we believe that it is incumbent upon the shale gas industry and its supporters, and the Government, to demonstrate that the above conditions are met, as most if not all of them are not at present.

“Only then should shale gas production be permitted to proceed in the event that it is proved to be economically viable, in the knowledge that it is consistent with a decarbonised UK energy system and environmental protection more generally.”

The paper: ‘Conditions for environmentally-sound UK shale gas development‘ is by Dr Christophe McGlade and Professor Paul Ekins, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and UCL Energy Institute, University College London; Professor Michael Bradshaw, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick; and Professor Jim Watson, UK Energy Research Centre.