Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years.

Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the ‘water crisis’.

Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.

With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March.

Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year.

To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased evapotranspiration, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.

A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors.

But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.

Blocked storm patterns

The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide.

In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they block the passage of cold fronts that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the path of these rain events.

As long as these blocking conditions persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely increase the probability of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.

Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The question that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo?

And how fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?

Rationing in force, and it’s going to get worse

In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only 5% storage of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and 15% at the end of the rainy season in March 2015.

An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a few days a week. The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives.

Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate inhabitants, particularly in poor districts, have stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage.

Other citizens are drilling through their basement floors to extract the precious water, leaving open wells.

And now, dengue fever

As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a deadly dengue fever outbreak.

In the SPMA, where the situation is really dramatic because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease.

Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.

What the future will bring for the growing population of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region.

However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.

Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.

Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.

Leila Carvalho is Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology at University of California, Santa Barbara.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years.

Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the ‘water crisis’.

Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.

With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March.

Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year.

To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased evapotranspiration, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.

A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors.

But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.

Blocked storm patterns

The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide.

In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they block the passage of cold fronts that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the path of these rain events.

As long as these blocking conditions persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely increase the probability of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.

Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The question that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo?

And how fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?

Rationing in force, and it’s going to get worse

In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only 5% storage of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and 15% at the end of the rainy season in March 2015.

An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a few days a week. The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives.

Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate inhabitants, particularly in poor districts, have stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage.

Other citizens are drilling through their basement floors to extract the precious water, leaving open wells.

And now, dengue fever

As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a deadly dengue fever outbreak.

In the SPMA, where the situation is really dramatic because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease.

Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.

What the future will bring for the growing population of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region.

However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.

Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.

Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.

Leila Carvalho is Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology at University of California, Santa Barbara.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years.

Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the ‘water crisis’.

Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.

With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March.

Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year.

To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased evapotranspiration, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.

A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors.

But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.

Blocked storm patterns

The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide.

In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they block the passage of cold fronts that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the path of these rain events.

As long as these blocking conditions persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely increase the probability of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.

Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The question that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo?

And how fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?

Rationing in force, and it’s going to get worse

In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only 5% storage of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and 15% at the end of the rainy season in March 2015.

An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a few days a week. The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives.

Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate inhabitants, particularly in poor districts, have stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage.

Other citizens are drilling through their basement floors to extract the precious water, leaving open wells.

And now, dengue fever

As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a deadly dengue fever outbreak.

In the SPMA, where the situation is really dramatic because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease.

Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.

What the future will bring for the growing population of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region.

However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.

Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.

Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.

Leila Carvalho is Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology at University of California, Santa Barbara.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years.

Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the ‘water crisis’.

Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.

With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March.

Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year.

To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased evapotranspiration, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.

A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors.

But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.

Blocked storm patterns

The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide.

In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they block the passage of cold fronts that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the path of these rain events.

As long as these blocking conditions persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely increase the probability of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.

Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The question that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo?

And how fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?

Rationing in force, and it’s going to get worse

In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only 5% storage of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and 15% at the end of the rainy season in March 2015.

An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a few days a week. The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives.

Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate inhabitants, particularly in poor districts, have stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage.

Other citizens are drilling through their basement floors to extract the precious water, leaving open wells.

And now, dengue fever

As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a deadly dengue fever outbreak.

In the SPMA, where the situation is really dramatic because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease.

Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.

What the future will bring for the growing population of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region.

However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.

Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.

Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.

Leila Carvalho is Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology at University of California, Santa Barbara.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Isn’t it funny that although practically every big issue about the future of global society hinges on technology, mainstream politics barely acknowledges them?

Even on the verge of climate and biodiversity catastrophe, how much were issues of technology politics discussed in the election campaign?

Governments come and go, but if the shadowy world government so beloved of conspiracy theorists really existed, you can bet that its main priority would be steering the development of technology, not stopping or starting wars. For no matter which political clique is in power, technology determines the material structure of the world, and defines what is possible.

The fundamental basis of any society is its relationship to nature, and that relationship is articulated through technology. So, as the green movement first began to argue around fifty years ago, it is the technological system of our society – industrialism – that is just as much to blame for the current crisis as the capitalist economic system.

Technological mythology

In order to stop us really getting to grips with this problem, the powers that be have developed mythologies that stop us thinking critically about technology. Technology, we are told, is “just a neutral tool”, the development of which always creates progress. In any case, they tell us there’s nothing we can do about it because, “you can’t stop technology!”

But, as anyone who has been involved in campaigns like those against fracking, GM food or nuclear power can tell you, those dogmas have more of religion than of fact about them. What the campaigns have taught us is that the corporate-military-industrial complex designs technologies to suit their interests, not ours. It would be weird if they didn’t.

From GM crops designed to boost sales of Monsanto’s herbicides to software designed to steal your personal secrets from all-pervasive planned obsolescence to the unending drive to eliminate people’s jobs through automation, the use of technology as a tool of corporate power is fairly obvious.

At a deeper level, the fundamental business plan of capitalism for the last 250 years has been to undermine subsistence with cheap industrial goods, in order to make us dependent on technologies they control.

Of course technologies have brought genuine benefits, but what gets developed is far from inevitable, and the progress is invariably bought at a huge cost – but one that only becomes known once the cat is well out of the bag.

Breaking the Frame

Now, a group of techno-heretics going under the name Breaking the Frame has decided to tackle those myths head-on. Nothing less than a fundamental reassessment of technology is needed if we are to get to grips with the environmental crisis.

What we have been exploring is the even more alarming notion that technology is fundamentally not neutral, that it in fact has a politics of its own, which we are calling ‘technocracy’. To be more precise, technologies developed within the regime that began with the Scientific Revolution of the 17th century create and embody their own power system.

Other human societies have developed large-scale technological systems that have been compatible with human flourishing and ecological sustainability. But what developed in 17th century Europe was an explicit ideology of the control of nature through technology, without any limit, and a worship of the machine.

That ideology, which our society calls ‘rationality’, treats nature as nothing more than a set of resources to be extracted without any restraint and produces technologies of total suppression of nature, such as pesticides.

It is this underlying politics of western technology that, just as much as the capitalist drive for unending growth, has landed us in the mess we are in now. The idea of technocracy also explains attempts to control society by controlling human nature through, for example, eugenics and the pharmaceutical mental health system.

The intensification of technocracy, through the Industrial Revolution, Fordism and our current computer surveillance-based ‘post-Fordism’ shapes capitalism and our whole society. The apostle of 20th century technocracy, Frederick Taylor, put it simply:

“In the past the man was first. In the future the system will be first.”

Primitivism? Hacking?

The realisation that there exists this underlying politics of technology means that we have to rethink our existing responses to it.

One natural response, anti-technology primitivism, misses the point that it is not ‘technology’ itself that is to blame, but ‘technocracy’: the particular politics, economics and legalities of technology that have dominated western society for the last 400 years.

Technocracy allied with industrial capitalism has, over the last 250 years, done more than all previous human societies put together to destroy planetary ecosystems. But we must be sceptical of the claims of those who want to ‘hack’ industrial mega-technologies such as information technology.

IT deeply embodies the system-centred technological control philosophy whose product is cybernetics, and thereby shapes our minds, disseminating the technocratic mentality beyond its usual realm of scientists, engineers and managers to everyone.

Are you using IT for your purposes or is it using you?

No green technofixes!

The green movement is also susceptible to this tendency. A hallmark of technocracy is the propensity to believe in technofixes – the habit of framing and understanding problems in technical terms, so that they can be solved technologically.

Technofixes always purport to be politically neutral, but because they ignore social and political understandings of the problem they are actually nearly always serve the interests of the powerful. For example, if the problem of world hunger is not about inadequate crop yields but poverty, then the solution is not GM crops but economic and political system change.

Is ‘the energy problem’ a merely technical issue of producing enough low-carbon energy? If we ignore the issue of whose interests they serve and what social forms they imply, our best alternative technologies turn into monstrous nuclear power stations, hated industrial wind farms, and corporate biofuel landgrabs.

These are some of the issues that we’ll be discussing at the Breaking the Frame gathering in a few weeks with leading thinkers from campaigning green groups and other radical social movements.

Putting technology issues at the centre of politics means we’ll be thinking about what democratic control of technology might look like and what technologies we need for the transition to a sustainable and economically just society.

There will also be plenty of opportunity to enjoy the beautiful Derbyshire countryside and relax in a stimulating, convivial atmosphere, with real ale on tap!

Attend: to overcome the feeling of being overwhelmed by technocratic power, come to Breaking the Frame 2015, July 9-12 2015, at Unstone Grange, Derbyshire.

Dr David King is a former molecular biologist who has been writing and campaigning about issues related to biotechnology and other technologies for 25 years. He is the main organiser of the Breaking the Frame gathering.

Contact: info@breakingtheframe.org.uk

The Breaking the Frame gathering is organised or supported by (amongst others):

• Corporate Watch
• Scientists for Global Responsibility
• Luddites200
• Rising Tide
• Campaign Against Climate Change
• Biofuelwatch
• The Gaia Foundation
• The Land magazine
• Occupy London General Assembly
• Genetic Engineering Network
• Low Impact Living Initiative
• The Green House Think Tank
• Veggies Catering Campaign

Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years.

Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the ‘water crisis’.

Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.

With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March.

Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year.

To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased evapotranspiration, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.

A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors.

But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.

Blocked storm patterns

The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide.

In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they block the passage of cold fronts that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the path of these rain events.

As long as these blocking conditions persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely increase the probability of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.

Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The question that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo?

And how fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?

Rationing in force, and it’s going to get worse

In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only 5% storage of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and 15% at the end of the rainy season in March 2015.

An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a few days a week. The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives.

Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate inhabitants, particularly in poor districts, have stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage.

Other citizens are drilling through their basement floors to extract the precious water, leaving open wells.

And now, dengue fever

As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a deadly dengue fever outbreak.

In the SPMA, where the situation is really dramatic because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease.

Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.

What the future will bring for the growing population of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region.

However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.

Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.

Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.

Leila Carvalho is Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology at University of California, Santa Barbara.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years.

Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the ‘water crisis’.

Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.

With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March.

Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year.

To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased evapotranspiration, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.

A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors.

But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.

Blocked storm patterns

The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide.

In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they block the passage of cold fronts that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the path of these rain events.

As long as these blocking conditions persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely increase the probability of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.

Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The question that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo?

And how fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?

Rationing in force, and it’s going to get worse

In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only 5% storage of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and 15% at the end of the rainy season in March 2015.

An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a few days a week. The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives.

Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate inhabitants, particularly in poor districts, have stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage.

Other citizens are drilling through their basement floors to extract the precious water, leaving open wells.

And now, dengue fever

As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a deadly dengue fever outbreak.

In the SPMA, where the situation is really dramatic because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease.

Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.

What the future will bring for the growing population of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region.

However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.

Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.

Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.

Leila Carvalho is Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology at University of California, Santa Barbara.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years.

Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the ‘water crisis’.

Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.

With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March.

Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year.

To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased evapotranspiration, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.

A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors.

But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.

Blocked storm patterns

The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide.

In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they block the passage of cold fronts that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the path of these rain events.

As long as these blocking conditions persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely increase the probability of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.

Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The question that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo?

And how fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?

Rationing in force, and it’s going to get worse

In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only 5% storage of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and 15% at the end of the rainy season in March 2015.

An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a few days a week. The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives.

Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate inhabitants, particularly in poor districts, have stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage.

Other citizens are drilling through their basement floors to extract the precious water, leaving open wells.

And now, dengue fever

As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a deadly dengue fever outbreak.

In the SPMA, where the situation is really dramatic because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease.

Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.

What the future will bring for the growing population of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region.

However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.

Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.

Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.

Leila Carvalho is Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology at University of California, Santa Barbara.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Exceptional drought, extreme temperatures, unprecedented drops in reservoir levels and threatening water shortages for millions of people have dominated headlines in California in recent years.

Unfortunately, Californians are not the only people being stressed with the ‘water crisis’.

Citizens of one of the most densely populated areas in South America – the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil – are struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.

With over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation during the Austral summer, from October to March.

Yet in the last four years, rain gauge stations near the most important reservoirs supplying water to the city have been reporting growing deficits in precipitation. Last year saw the worst since at least 1961, which has been followed by another dry year.

To aggravate these conditions, daily records of high temperatures during these summers have increased evapotranspiration, accelerating drought conditions, similar to what has been observed in California.

A planet with over seven billion people and limited freshwater resources is already showing environmental exhaustion and signaling humans have crossed the line of sustainability. Our capacity to mitigate the negative effects of environmental changes and how fast we can adapt is limited by multiple factors.

But as a megacity – a complex and often disorganized human conglomerate – the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil is particularly exposed to the effects of extreme weather events.

Blocked storm patterns

The climatic factors influencing the drought in California and in Sao Paulo are likely interconnected. Cycles in the Pacific sea surface temperature that occur on decadal timescales are coupled to changes in atmospheric circulation that affect weather patterns worldwide.

In some regions, atmospheric conditions are such that they block the passage of cold fronts that cause the storms to bring precipitation, changing the path of these rain events.

As long as these blocking conditions persist, there will be regions undergoing dry conditions, whereas others will be extremely wet. The North Pacific has been entering a phase that will likely increase the probability of these blocking mechanisms that favor dry conditions in California and other regions of the planet, including Sao Paulo.

Of course, similar oceanic and atmospheric conditions have occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. The question that we should confront without hesitation is: how can global warming aggravate these extreme conditions, particularly in locations with high rates of urban growth such as Sao Paulo?

And how fast should governments act and how much should be invested to mitigate these unprecedented conditions?

Rationing in force, and it’s going to get worse

In the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, the main water supply system, which provides water for about 8.8 million inhabitants, reached critical levels in early 2015. It had only 5% storage of its 1.3 billion cubic meter capacity on January 2015 and 15% at the end of the rainy season in March 2015.

An impending ration mandate could leave residents without access to water for a few days a week. The main water utility has already reduced pressure in the pipes to force conservation, a strategy that has cut off running water to millions of customers for hours and even days, depending on where one lives.

Unlike California, isolated rain showers have occurred in Sao Paulo, and the desperate inhabitants, particularly in poor districts, have stored the rainwater in open containers and buckets to save it for the days of water shortage.

Other citizens are drilling through their basement floors to extract the precious water, leaving open wells.

And now, dengue fever

As a consequence, the entire state of Sao Paulo, with a population of 40 million inhabitants, is undergoing a deadly dengue fever outbreak.

In the SPMA, where the situation is really dramatic because of the limited access to water, the government created many improvised ambulatories throughout the city to attend the population with symptoms of the disease.

Officials go door-to-door searching for infectious mosquito larvae and educating the population about the disease. However, all these measures have proven to be inefficient to control the dengue larvae proliferation.

What the future will bring for the growing population of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area remains unknown. In the short term, it is possible the blocking conditions that have prevented storms from coming through will become less persistent in the next summer and increase the probability of extreme precipitation in the region.

However, the temporary relief will not solve the imminent water crisis in Sao Paulo, nor in California, in the years to come.

Populations and governments in the world need to raise awareness about limited freshwater resources so the present sets the right stage for a sustainable future. No matter where we live or the rate of economic growth of a given nation, populations are, and will always be, vulnerable to water scarcity.

Resilience depends on numerous factors, but how populations will cope with disasters of various magnitudes is largely dictated by political actions, socioeconomic development and education.

Leila Carvalho is Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climatology at University of California, Santa Barbara.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

A little-noticed part of the Anti-Social Behaviour, Crime and Policing Act, passed last October, has given the police a roaming power to bar people from public spaces.

‘Dispersal orders’ are an extension of previous powers, but the key difference is that they can now be applied in any place, at any time.

Previously, areas had to be declared dispersal zones in advance, after a relatively lengthy consultation process. Now any area can be declared a dispersal zone on the spot: a police officer need only gain authorisation from his or her inspector over the phone.

Once an area has been activated as a ‘dispersal zone’ – sometimes an area as large as Liverpool city centre – police officers can then bar individuals from the area for 48 hours, or face arrest, followed by hundreds of pounds in fines and court costs, and a criminal conviction.

The only condition for serving a ‘Section 34’ dispersal notice is that they “suspect” that a person’s behaviour “is likely to contribute” to causing “harassment, alarm or distress”.

A Manifesto Club briefing document investigated the use of these powers and found that police forces are now declaring dispersal zones before almost any kind of public gathering, including political protests, which poses a direct threat to freedom of speech and assembly.

They were declared in advance of events such as a Christmas lights switch-on in Lancaster city centre, firework displays in Stoke on Trent, and a student night in Warwick, as well as several fairs. In one six-week period, 19 police forces used the new powers 528 times to declare dispersal areas, and dispersed 1,344 individuals.

The new law can be used against almost anyone

Many town and city centres are now weekend dispersal zones, running from Friday until Sunday night. This means that the police can bar someone from the centre of town for the whole weekend if they think that person may cause trouble.

The condition for issuing a dispersal order is so low that it can be used against almost anyone. Those barred from public places include homeless people, a disabled man handing out food for the homeless who was issued with a dispersal notice which barred him from central Brighton, making it a crime for him to re-enter the area, and football supporters who had pulled up by the side of the road in an isolated area.

One of the football supporters later described his experience: “Our treatment was unreal, around 48 of us received Section 34 orders. We simply pulled up on the edge of town, got out of our bus, and were surrounded by police within a minute. We were held there for two hours and given one option – accept the order or be arrested … There was no trouble at all, the road we were on was remote, there were absolutely no rival fans anywhere near us … “

In the case of young and homeless people particularly, their sheer presence in public space was commonly cited as “intimidating” or “anti-social”. For a homeless person to just sit on a bench – especially with a drink in hand – is often seen as reason enough for criminal sanction.

Many forces said that they brought through orders in response to “begging” or “street drinking”, and some said that orders were issued against under 18s who were “congregating” in public spaces.

The law has also ben used to disperse lawful protests, with worrying implications for our democratic freedoms. Merseyside Police have used their powers against political protesters on consecutive weekends – in one case targeting activists who were chatting and deciding which pub to go to for a drink. Police also used the powers to remove protesters against the controversial redevelopment of a Southwark housing estate.

Giving the police free rein

In effect, officers now have powers to act on their hunch that someone is “suspicious” or “up to no good”. Police chiefs describe these orders as a “useful tool” and have told officers to issue orders if they “see people who they think may cause a nuisance”.

Since officers do not actually possess clairvoyant powers, they do not actually know whether somebody is going to commit an offence, and the result is only to give free rein to hunches and prejudices.

I recently received an FOI response from Cambridgeshire Police detailing some of the dispersal orders issued in a six-week period, showing the flimsy basis on which people can now have their freedom of movement suspended.

One person was issued with an order when they were “seen walking and loitering” along a particular road. Another was “seen to approach and meet up with another male acting in a suspicious manner.” A fan outside Peterborough United football ground was “seen to be part of a group gesturing and appearing to swear towards the away fans.”

One person issued with a dispersal order was a “male suspected of urinating in a public place, drunk, bumping into members of the public.” There were also cases of the orders being used against homeless people, who were barred from an area of town after having been seen committing the offence of begging.

Some police forces seem to be suggesting that merely being present in a public place for any length of time is an illegitimate and questionable activity. One police superintendent said that people would automatically be asked to move on from the dispersal area within Worcester City Centre:

“People are more than welcome to use the pubs, clubs and food outlets in the area. However, once they leave these premises we will politely ask them to move on quickly.”

The wide variety of situations included indicates that forces are using these orders almost on a whim: powers are seen as “handy”, useful to “nip a situation in the bud” or “stop crimes before they happen”.

A fundamental shift in the law

What is entirely absent is the notion – the basis of criminal law for centuries – that powers should only be used against those who have actually committed an offence. No punishment without crime, no crime without a law. This was the basis of common law from the Magna Carta onwards.

Now, however, both police and politicians seem quite happy to enter into the realm of punishment for pre-crime, pseudo-crime or nearly crime. There is punishment for “loitering” or “looking suspicious”, or those grievous offences of “bumping into people” or “appearing to swear”. Punishment, in some cases, because you look to an officer like the kind of person who might do something.

The barring of individuals from their city centre for a weekend is not seen as a terribly serious measure. Some police forces have dispersal notice cards that they can give out, like leaflets. Dispersal powers are not taken seriously because, ultimately, members of the public are not respected: they are not seen as free men and women, but pins to be pushed around in a pragmatic manner.

This is quite wrong. The great constitutionalist A V Dicey noted that under English Common Law, any restraint of citizens not based on a criminal offence was itself unlawful, and the person could sue the police in the ordinary courts. Every dispersal order is just this: unlawful restraint.

We should stand up for the true law of the land – the principle that we must have committed a crime before the coercive powers of the state can be used against us – against the sham of legal principle which has taken over our statute books.

The report: ‘Dispersal notices: the crime of being in a public place‘ is a Manifesto Club briefing document by Josie Appleton.

Josie Appleton is director of the Manifesto Club, a campaign group for freedom in everyday life.

This article was originally published by openDemocracy under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence.