The British government this week gave the green light for Heathrow airport’s third runway. It was heralded by its supporters as a vital boost for jobs and growth – and proof that the UK was “open for business”.

The transport secretary, Chris Grayling, referred to the decision as “truly momentous” while the prime minister, Theresa May, the planned expansion as “vital for the economic future of the whole of the UK”.

The decision has already been vociferously opposed by environmentalist campaigners. Simply stated, flying is a significant source of air pollution, and a carbon-intensive means of moving people around, despite technological developments and modifications.

Airport expansions puts, as Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas describes it, “a wrecking ball through the UK’s climate change commitments“.

The decision to approve airport expansion is indeed “truly momentous” – because it shows just how far governments, but also trade unions, businesses and many individuals, are willing to go in denying that climate change and related ecological crises require us to significantly change the way we live.

#HyperNormalisation

In fact, as a policy move, it arguably epitomises the phenomena of “hypernormalisation”, as described in Adam Curtis’s new documentary of the same name.

HyperNormalisation was commissioned by the BBC and released as an iplayer exclusive on October 16 2016 – you can watch it here.

Curtis is a fascinating filmmaker. He weaves archive footage of events over the past half-century into provocative historical narratives. His commentary is informed by sociological theory, political economy and much more besides.

Are we living in the real world?

HyperNormalisation is no exception. It clocks in at just under three hours and takes in numerous people, places and events. Curtis’s overarching claim is that those in power have been increasingly incapable of dealing with a sequence of global issues with any meaningful plan.

They are devoid of any vision beyond the maintenance of the status quo. He uses the term hypernormalisation to explain the prevailing response of politicians to this state of affairs, and the effect it has on the wider population.

Alexei Yurchak coined the term in his 2006 book Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More: The Last Soviet Generation. He uses it to describe Soviet life in the 1970s, when the population was pushed to maintain the façade of a socialist utopia to the point that it was impossible to see beyond this system, despite everyone knowing it was an illusion.

This manically heightened state of fake normality – and collective investment in it – is ‘hypernormalisation’. Curtis uses the term more loosely. He argues that it can be used to make sense of the maintenance of a simplified, reassuring and fake version of the world in the face of unprecedented global challenges that incumbent governments and power alliances do not have the competence or inclination to address.

Climate change and environmental disasters do not loom large in the HyperNormalisation film, but they are, for me, an extension of the phenomenon – precisely the kind of challenge we might expect to be ‘hypernormalised’.

The decision to approve Heathrow’s third runway is a government policy manifestation of hypernormalisation. Those in power simply do not have the capacity or willingness for leadership on climate change as an issue that demands societal transformation.

The alternative, if we apply Curtis’s logic, is to strive to maintain a narrative in which these issues do not appear to really matter. Everything, we are told instead, is going to be fine.

Instead of dealing with the real issues at hand, we will instead be admitted to the fantasy land of accelerated mobility and consumption. In this alternate reality, the ‘environmental future’ must not impinge on May’s ‘economic future’.

The dangers beyond the fantasy

But of course events are unfolding in the world outside the hypernormal narrative of business as usual: the well-documented forces unleashed by the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, the ongoing extinction and displacement of countless species, warming and acidifying oceans, deforestation and arctic melting.

These forces are the product of industrial society and capitalism, now exacerbated by the demands of a globalised consumerism. We know that the practices and pastimes that make up these societies, including frequent and long-haul flying, are unsustainable.

Every government leader in the world knows this. But the psychological and social processes we engage in to avoid confronting the implications of climate change are now well documented in the social sciences – as individual and collective forms of denial.

It is even claimed that the closer a threatening event, the more manically we defend existing worldviews and associated ways of life. There is no reason to assume that these dynamics are any less prevalent in our leaders and decision-makers in business, government and trade unions.

These dynamics of denial and displacement are precisely those that reflect and maintain a state of hypernormalisation. So airport expansion can be heralded unequivocally as “momentous”, “correct” and “bold” in the same week that global concentrations of CO₂ pass 400 parts per million.

It is a policy move which simply does not make sense – unless we are operating in an atmosphere of hypernormalisation.

Defending it on behalf of our “economic future” is a grotesquely comic perpetuation of that fakery. If it goes ahead, it is likely that history will judge the expansion of Heathrow as an act of collusive madness, a desperate attempt to add another coat to the painted theatre set of the hypernormal.

Matthew Adams is Principal Lecturer in Psychology, University of Brighton.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Humanity has now entered a new climate reality era, with carbon dioxide concentrations expected to remain above the level of 400 parts per million throughout 2016 and for many generations to come, the World Meteorological Organization says.

The WMO, the United Nations system’s leading agency on weather, climate and water, says the globally averaged concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached “the symbolic and significant milestone of 400 parts per million“ for the first time in 2015 and surged again to new records in 2016 on the back of the very powerful El Niño event.

CO₂ levels reached the 400 ppm barrier for certain months during 2015 and in certain places, but they have never done so on a global average basis for the entire year. The WMO says in its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin that the growth spurt in CO₂ was fuelled by El Niño, which started in 2015 and had a strong impact well into this year.

This, it says, triggered droughts in tropical regions and reduced the capacity of ‘sinks’ like forests, vegetation and the oceans to absorb CO_2. These sinks currently absorb about half of CO₂ emissions, but there is a risk that they could become saturated, increasing the proportion of carbon dioxide which stays in the atmosphere.

A 37% increase in ‘radiative forcing’ in 25 years

Between 1990 and 2015, the Bulletin says, there was a 37% increase in radiative forcing – the warming effect on the climate – because of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from industrial, agricultural and domestic activities.

“The year 2015 ushered in a new era of optimism and climate action with the Paris climate change agreement. But it will also make history as marking a new era of climate change reality with record high greenhouse gas concentrations”, said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas. “The El Niño event has disappeared. Climate change has not.”

“The real elephant in the room is carbon dioxide, which remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years and in the oceans for even longer. Without tackling CO₂ emissions, we cannot tackle climate change and keep temperature increases to below 2°C above the pre-industrial era.

“It is therefore of the utmost importance that the Paris Agreement does indeed enter into force well ahead of schedule on 4 November and that we fast-track its implementation.”

The WMO Bulletin also addresses the problem of rising concentrations of methane, the second most important long-lived greenhouse gas, which contributes about 17% of radiative forcing. About 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources like wetlands and termites, with the rest coming from human activities like cattle breeding, rice growing, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning.

Atmospheric methane reached a new high of about 1,845 parts per billion (ppb) in 2015 and is now 256% of its pre-industrial level. Nitrous oxide’s atmospheric concentration in 2015 was about 328 parts per billion, 121% of pre-industrial levels. 

A ‘scientific base’ for UNFCCC’s Marrakech meeting next month

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin provides a scientific base for decision-making, and the WMO has released it ahead of the UN climate change negotiations to be held in the Moroccan city of Marrakech from 7-18 November. They will be seeking to translate the Agreenent into an effective way of coping with the new climate reality era the WMO has identified.

The Bulletin says the pre-industrial level of about 278 ppm of CO₂ represented a balance between the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, have altered the natural balance and in 2015 globally averaged levels were 144% of pre-industrial levels. The increase of  CO₂ from 2014 to 2015 was larger than the previous year and the average over the previous 10 years.

The Bulletin says the last El Niño, as well as reducing the capacity of vegetation to absorb CO₂, led to an increase in CO₂ emissions from forest fires. According to the Global Fire Emissions Database, CO₂ emissions in equatorial Asia – where there were serious forest fires in Indonesia in August-September 2015 – were more than twice as high as the 1997-2015 average.

Drought also has a big impact on CO₂ absorption by vegetation,  and scientists saw similar effects during the 1997-98 El Niño.

Alex Kirby writes for Climate News Network, where this article was originally published (CC BY-ND).

Aviation’s greenhouse gas emissions could consume around half the carbon budget available to the UK in 2050, even if the sector’s emissions growth is constrained.

If aviation emissions increase with rising demand for flights, the sector could claim as much as two-thirds of the budget for 1.5C, Carbon Brief analysis of the latest official climate advice shows.

The numbers make for awkward reading as the government approves a new runway at Heathrow, which it says is needed to meet ever-rising demand for air travel.

Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement on climate change, due to enter force on 4 November, pledges to limit warming to “well below” 2C and, if possible, no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

In order to meet this aim, countries must make careful use of the very limited remaining carbon budget. That budget could be used up within five years, leaving the world reliant on unproven negative emissions technologies in order to draw CO₂ out of the atmosphere.

Paris means the UK must raise its existing climate ambition: it will have to reach net-zero emissions, whereas its current legislated target is to cut emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), the government’s official advisers, says it is too early to set a date for reaching net zero. However, the CCC notes that the 1.5C goal of Paris implies UK reductions of “at least 90% below 1990 levels by 2050”.

It gives a range of 86-96% for cutting emissions by 2050, if the UK takes an equal per capita share and if the world aims for at least a 50% chance that 1.5C will be avoided. Note that other ways to divide the burden of cutting emissions would probably entail more drastic cuts for the UK, while, arguably, a 50% chance of exceeding the 1.5C limit is risky.

Setting aside these questions, the middle of the CCC’s range – a 91% cut – would give the UK a carbon budget of 72 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e) in 2050. This is close to the limit of what the CCC believes to be possible using currently known technologies and options.

It thinks the maximum plausible cuts to UK emissions in 2050 would reach 92% below 1990 levels, or 64MtCO₂e. It’s worth adding that this builds in significant use of negative emissions, including biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), as well as afforestation.

Flight forecasts

Where do aviation emissions fit into this? In its most recent forecasts of demand for air travel, the government said that even without a new runway at Heathrow, UK airports would serve 445 million passengers per annum (mppa) in 2050. This is more than twice the 211 mppa served in 2010.

The Department for Transport (DfT) said UK aviation emissions, including international flights departing from UK airports, would reach 47MtCO₂e by 2050 without airport expansion. With new runways, passenger numbers could rise to 480mppa, the DfT says. Carbon Brief estimates this would translate into emissions of 51MtCO₂e in 2050.

This figure is more than two-thirds (71%) of the 72MtCO₂e mid-range carbon budget for 2050 implied by the CCC, if the UK is to play its part in meeting the ambition of the Paris Agreement. It is also nearly a third (32%) of the budget for 2C, assuming the UK sticks with its 80% by 2050 target.

Graph: UK greenhouse gas emissions including the UK share of international aviation. Historic data runs through to 2014, the latest year for which aviation figures are available. The shaded area shows projected linear progress towards an overall 91% cut in 2050, with aviation capped to 2005 emissions. Source: Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

However, the CCC has said that UK aviation emissions should be limited to no more than 2005 levels, if the UK is to meet its 2050 carbon targets as cheaply as possible. This would mean a cap of 37.5MtCO₂e for UK-based air travel. That 37.5MtCO₂e cap would be equivalent to more than half (52%) of the allowable 1.5C-compatible carbon budget in 2050.

The CCC says the 37.5MtCO₂e cap can be met if plausible increases in aircraft efficiency and use of lower carbon fuels is accompanied by demand growth of no more than 60% above 2005 levels.

Note that this cap includes additional room to grow compared to today’s levels because emissions fell from 37.5MtCO₂e in 2005 to 31.9Mt in 2010, partly as a result of the financial crisis. They had reached only 32.9MtCO₂e in 2014, still more than 10% below the 2005 cap.

Airports Commission: aviation emissions to double by 2020

For its part, the Airports Commission led by Sir Howard Davies, said that demand for air travel would grow by closer to 100% to 2050. This would breach the CO₂ cap for aviation and would entail the UK buying overseas carbon offsets to balance the books.

Note: The UK will participate in an international carbon trading scheme to limit aviation emissions at 2020 levels, agreed by 191 countries in Montreal on 6 October. This will cover 85% of air traffic.

However, the CCC continues to oppose the use of international offsets, saying that “UK targets should focus on domestic effort”. In a letter to the CCC, Davies said that UK aviation emissions could be constrained to the 37.5MtCO₂ cap, but only with an extremely high carbon price.

Writing in the Telegraph this week, Davies says that climate goals mean it would be a mistake to allow both Heathrow and Gatwick to expand: “Allowing two proposals to continue could mean neither is built, as it would be impossible to argue that both runways could be fully used in the next twenty years while meeting our legislated climate change commitments. So the decision could be challenged in the courts.”

It’s worth adding that Davies suggests Birmingham airport might be expanded in future. His comments also relate to the UK’s existing climate targets, rather than the tougher goals likely to result from Paris.

Global problem

The UK is already responsible for an above average share of international air travel, a position it presumably wishes to retain as it goes out into the world without EU membership.

Aviation emissions are among the most difficult to tackle, along with those from farms and factories. That’s why the new aviation climate deal is based around emissions offsets.

At a global scale, aviation could consume a quarter of carbon budget for 1.5C, recent Carbon Brief analysis showed. If the UK wants new runways, it must also take responsibility for the emissions those flights generate.

Dr Simon Evans is policy editor for Carbon Brief, covering climate and energy policy. He holds a PhD in biochemistry from Bristol University and previously studied chemistry at Oxford University. He worked for environment journal The ENDS Report for six years, covering topics including climate science and air pollution.

This article was originally published by Carbon Brief (CC BY-NC-ND).

Humanity has now entered a new climate reality era, with carbon dioxide concentrations expected to remain above the level of 400 parts per million throughout 2016 and for many generations to come, the World Meteorological Organization says.

The WMO, the United Nations system’s leading agency on weather, climate and water, says the globally averaged concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached “the symbolic and significant milestone of 400 parts per million“ for the first time in 2015 and surged again to new records in 2016 on the back of the very powerful El Niño event.

CO₂ levels reached the 400 ppm barrier for certain months during 2015 and in certain places, but they have never done so on a global average basis for the entire year. The WMO says in its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin that the growth spurt in CO₂ was fuelled by El Niño, which started in 2015 and had a strong impact well into this year.

This, it says, triggered droughts in tropical regions and reduced the capacity of ‘sinks’ like forests, vegetation and the oceans to absorb CO_2. These sinks currently absorb about half of CO₂ emissions, but there is a risk that they could become saturated, increasing the proportion of carbon dioxide which stays in the atmosphere.

A 37% increase in ‘radiative forcing’ in 25 years

Between 1990 and 2015, the Bulletin says, there was a 37% increase in radiative forcing – the warming effect on the climate – because of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from industrial, agricultural and domestic activities.

“The year 2015 ushered in a new era of optimism and climate action with the Paris climate change agreement. But it will also make history as marking a new era of climate change reality with record high greenhouse gas concentrations”, said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas. “The El Niño event has disappeared. Climate change has not.”

“The real elephant in the room is carbon dioxide, which remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years and in the oceans for even longer. Without tackling CO₂ emissions, we cannot tackle climate change and keep temperature increases to below 2°C above the pre-industrial era.

“It is therefore of the utmost importance that the Paris Agreement does indeed enter into force well ahead of schedule on 4 November and that we fast-track its implementation.”

The WMO Bulletin also addresses the problem of rising concentrations of methane, the second most important long-lived greenhouse gas, which contributes about 17% of radiative forcing. About 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources like wetlands and termites, with the rest coming from human activities like cattle breeding, rice growing, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning.

Atmospheric methane reached a new high of about 1,845 parts per billion (ppb) in 2015 and is now 256% of its pre-industrial level. Nitrous oxide’s atmospheric concentration in 2015 was about 328 parts per billion, 121% of pre-industrial levels. 

A ‘scientific base’ for UNFCCC’s Marrakech meeting next month

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin provides a scientific base for decision-making, and the WMO has released it ahead of the UN climate change negotiations to be held in the Moroccan city of Marrakech from 7-18 November. They will be seeking to translate the Agreenent into an effective way of coping with the new climate reality era the WMO has identified.

The Bulletin says the pre-industrial level of about 278 ppm of CO₂ represented a balance between the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, have altered the natural balance and in 2015 globally averaged levels were 144% of pre-industrial levels. The increase of  CO₂ from 2014 to 2015 was larger than the previous year and the average over the previous 10 years.

The Bulletin says the last El Niño, as well as reducing the capacity of vegetation to absorb CO₂, led to an increase in CO₂ emissions from forest fires. According to the Global Fire Emissions Database, CO₂ emissions in equatorial Asia – where there were serious forest fires in Indonesia in August-September 2015 – were more than twice as high as the 1997-2015 average.

Drought also has a big impact on CO₂ absorption by vegetation,  and scientists saw similar effects during the 1997-98 El Niño.

Alex Kirby writes for Climate News Network, where this article was originally published (CC BY-ND).

Aviation’s greenhouse gas emissions could consume around half the carbon budget available to the UK in 2050, even if the sector’s emissions growth is constrained.

If aviation emissions increase with rising demand for flights, the sector could claim as much as two-thirds of the budget for 1.5C, Carbon Brief analysis of the latest official climate advice shows.

The numbers make for awkward reading as the government approves a new runway at Heathrow, which it says is needed to meet ever-rising demand for air travel.

Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement on climate change, due to enter force on 4 November, pledges to limit warming to “well below” 2C and, if possible, no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

In order to meet this aim, countries must make careful use of the very limited remaining carbon budget. That budget could be used up within five years, leaving the world reliant on unproven negative emissions technologies in order to draw CO₂ out of the atmosphere.

Paris means the UK must raise its existing climate ambition: it will have to reach net-zero emissions, whereas its current legislated target is to cut emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC), the government’s official advisers, says it is too early to set a date for reaching net zero. However, the CCC notes that the 1.5C goal of Paris implies UK reductions of “at least 90% below 1990 levels by 2050”.

It gives a range of 86-96% for cutting emissions by 2050, if the UK takes an equal per capita share and if the world aims for at least a 50% chance that 1.5C will be avoided. Note that other ways to divide the burden of cutting emissions would probably entail more drastic cuts for the UK, while, arguably, a 50% chance of exceeding the 1.5C limit is risky.

Setting aside these questions, the middle of the CCC’s range – a 91% cut – would give the UK a carbon budget of 72 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e) in 2050. This is close to the limit of what the CCC believes to be possible using currently known technologies and options.

It thinks the maximum plausible cuts to UK emissions in 2050 would reach 92% below 1990 levels, or 64MtCO₂e. It’s worth adding that this builds in significant use of negative emissions, including biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), as well as afforestation.

Flight forecasts

Where do aviation emissions fit into this? In its most recent forecasts of demand for air travel, the government said that even without a new runway at Heathrow, UK airports would serve 445 million passengers per annum (mppa) in 2050. This is more than twice the 211 mppa served in 2010.

The Department for Transport (DfT) said UK aviation emissions, including international flights departing from UK airports, would reach 47MtCO₂e by 2050 without airport expansion. With new runways, passenger numbers could rise to 480mppa, the DfT says. Carbon Brief estimates this would translate into emissions of 51MtCO₂e in 2050.

This figure is more than two-thirds (71%) of the 72MtCO₂e mid-range carbon budget for 2050 implied by the CCC, if the UK is to play its part in meeting the ambition of the Paris Agreement. It is also nearly a third (32%) of the budget for 2C, assuming the UK sticks with its 80% by 2050 target.

Graph: UK greenhouse gas emissions including the UK share of international aviation. Historic data runs through to 2014, the latest year for which aviation figures are available. The shaded area shows projected linear progress towards an overall 91% cut in 2050, with aviation capped to 2005 emissions. Source: Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Carbon Brief analysis. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.

However, the CCC has said that UK aviation emissions should be limited to no more than 2005 levels, if the UK is to meet its 2050 carbon targets as cheaply as possible. This would mean a cap of 37.5MtCO₂e for UK-based air travel. That 37.5MtCO₂e cap would be equivalent to more than half (52%) of the allowable 1.5C-compatible carbon budget in 2050.

The CCC says the 37.5MtCO₂e cap can be met if plausible increases in aircraft efficiency and use of lower carbon fuels is accompanied by demand growth of no more than 60% above 2005 levels.

Note that this cap includes additional room to grow compared to today’s levels because emissions fell from 37.5MtCO₂e in 2005 to 31.9Mt in 2010, partly as a result of the financial crisis. They had reached only 32.9MtCO₂e in 2014, still more than 10% below the 2005 cap.

Airports Commission: aviation emissions to double by 2020

For its part, the Airports Commission led by Sir Howard Davies, said that demand for air travel would grow by closer to 100% to 2050. This would breach the CO₂ cap for aviation and would entail the UK buying overseas carbon offsets to balance the books.

Note: The UK will participate in an international carbon trading scheme to limit aviation emissions at 2020 levels, agreed by 191 countries in Montreal on 6 October. This will cover 85% of air traffic.

However, the CCC continues to oppose the use of international offsets, saying that “UK targets should focus on domestic effort”. In a letter to the CCC, Davies said that UK aviation emissions could be constrained to the 37.5MtCO₂ cap, but only with an extremely high carbon price.

Writing in the Telegraph this week, Davies says that climate goals mean it would be a mistake to allow both Heathrow and Gatwick to expand: “Allowing two proposals to continue could mean neither is built, as it would be impossible to argue that both runways could be fully used in the next twenty years while meeting our legislated climate change commitments. So the decision could be challenged in the courts.”

It’s worth adding that Davies suggests Birmingham airport might be expanded in future. His comments also relate to the UK’s existing climate targets, rather than the tougher goals likely to result from Paris.

Global problem

The UK is already responsible for an above average share of international air travel, a position it presumably wishes to retain as it goes out into the world without EU membership.

Aviation emissions are among the most difficult to tackle, along with those from farms and factories. That’s why the new aviation climate deal is based around emissions offsets.

At a global scale, aviation could consume a quarter of carbon budget for 1.5C, recent Carbon Brief analysis showed. If the UK wants new runways, it must also take responsibility for the emissions those flights generate.

Dr Simon Evans is policy editor for Carbon Brief, covering climate and energy policy. He holds a PhD in biochemistry from Bristol University and previously studied chemistry at Oxford University. He worked for environment journal The ENDS Report for six years, covering topics including climate science and air pollution.

This article was originally published by Carbon Brief (CC BY-NC-ND).

The growth in superbugs – infections which are resistant to antibiotics – is one of the biggest public health crises facing the world today, and pollution in drug companies’ supply chains is one of its causes.

Yet the Bureau of Investigative Journalism has established that firms with a history of bad practice and pollution are supplying the NHS, and environmental standards do not feature in NHS procurement protocols.

New tests on water samples taken outside pharmaceutical factories in India which sell to the NHS found they contained bacteria which were resistant to the antibiotics made inside the plants.

This suggests industrial waste containing active antibiotic ingredients is being leaked into the surrounding environment. Studies have shown how this causes nearby bacteria to develop immunity to the drugs – creating ‘superbugs’ – and that those resistant bacteria then spread around the world.

Responding to the Bureau’s findings, the Department of Health (DoH) said it would consider bringing in new rules for antibiotic factories which export drugs to Britain.

The Bureau’s investigation also established that at least three companies licensed to supply the NHS have not signed up to a new roadmap put in place following a recent United Nations antibiotic resistance summit, in which 13 global pharmaceutical firms pledged to review manufacturing and supply chains to make sure the release of antibiotics into the environment was being properly controlled.

Superbugs could ‘kill more people than cancer’ by 2050

Economist Lord Jim O’Neill, who conducted a major review into global antibiotic resistance, also known as antimicrobial resistance (AMR), told the Bureau the results of the tests were “deeply troubling”.

His government-commissioned study found superbugs would kill more people than cancer by 2050 if no action is taken, and cited pollution in pharmaceutical supply chains as a major problem.

The Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Authority (MHRA) – which licenses companies to make drugs for the UK market and carries out audits of factories – told us it currently has no regulations around waste, and neither does the European Medicines Agency.

Both agencies require manufacturers to meet Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP), a set of rules companies must meet to show their drugs are safe to be sold in the European Union (EU) or the UK. But GMP standards do not cover environmental emissions.

The influential purchasing power of national health services and authorities means they have the ability to bring about significant change in the way drugs are sourced and produced, said Natasha Hurley from the pressure group Changing Markets, which commissioned the water sample testing.

“Purchasers of antibiotics such as the NHS must immediately blacklist pharmaceutical companies with manufacturing practices that contribute to the spread of AMR, and to implement procurement policies that include environmental criteria”, she said.

Polluting companies upplying NHS hospitals

Changing Markets tested water samples collected at 36 locations across India – including sites adjacent to drug manufacturing plants as well as rivers and wastewater treatment plants – and found 16 contained antibiotic resistant E.coli bacteria.

The highest level of drug resistant bacteria was found in water samples originating from a factory in India run by multinational drug company Aurobindo Pharma.

Freedom of Information requests reveal Aurobindo, through its UK subsidiary Milpharm Ltd, has supplied antibiotics to NHS trusts across England during the past three years – including the UK’s biggest, Barts Health NHS Trust in East London. Aurobindo also has a £450,000-a-year contract supplying every NHS health region in Scotland with antibiotics including flucloxacillin, metronidazole and meropenem.

The company exports to more than 150 countries around the globe and 87% of its profits – which last year totalled about £200 million – are made from international operations, according to its most recent annual report.

Analysis of water originating inside the perimeter of the company’s plant near the Indian city of Hyderabad found that 70% of E.coli bacteria present were resistant to fluoroquinolones – a class of antibiotics classified by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as being critically important to human medicine.

Fluoroquinolones are manufactured at the plant and despatched all over the world – though the Bureau does not know if drugs made at this particular factory are exported to Britain. However the factory was inspected and certified as meeting the EU’s GMP standards in 2013 – meaning it is authorised to supply the UK.

Various studies have found “high levels of hazardous waste” and “large volumes of effluent waste” being dumped into the environment surrounding factories in India and China, where most of the world’s antibiotics are produced. Active ingredients used in antibiotics get into the local soil and water systems, leading to bacteria in the environment becoming resistant to the drugs.

Once established in the environment, the bacteria can exchange genetic material with nearby germs. They can then spread around the world through air and water, and by travellers visiting countries where the bacteria are prevalent.

Aurobindo was caught breaking pollution laws in 2012. The Andhra Pradesh Pollution Control Board ordered closure of two Aurobindo facilities (along with ten other pharmaceutical plants in Hyderabad) “in the interest of protecting public health and the environment”.

The company did not respond to the Bureau’s request for comment.

Creating ‘reservoirs’ of antibiotic-resistant bacteria

Changing Markets’ findings follow stark warnings in O’Neill’s review that a failure to tackle pollution from antibiotic production would exacerbate the spread of global superbugs.

The release of untreated waste products from substandard antibiotic factories “acts as a driver for the development of drug resistance, creating environmental “, said the report.

One major 2007 study found “shocking” levels of active antibiotic ingredients being discharged into a river in India, and concentration of the commonly-used antibiotic ciprofloxacin in the water exceeded levels toxic to some bacteria by 1000-fold.

Responding to the new findings, O’Neill told the Bureau: “Reports of this type of untreated antibiotic waste being released into the environment are deeply troubling, and it is the responsibility of all manufacturers – and their suppliers – to ensure that negligent or irresponsible practices do not add fuel to the fire of rising drug resistance.”

O’Neill backed a recent initiative by 13 global pharmaceutical companies to produce an industry ‘roadmap’ to combat antibiotic resistance, pledging to reduce environmental impact of antibiotic production.

The pledge, signed ahead of a high-level UN meeting on AMR last month, included promises to review manufacturing and supply chains to make sure they adhered to good practices and were not releasing antibiotics into the environment. Aurobindo and Milpharm were not among the list of signatories to the document.

Aurobindo also sells antibiotics from the Hyderabad plant in the USA and supplies drugs for the American pharmaceutical company McKesson.

UK Health Department: ‘there are no current rules around antibiotic supply’

The DoH told the Bureau that emissions from antibiotic factories were a growing concern and one where strong international action was needed.

A spokesperson said: “Although manufacturing practices of companies that supply the NHS are closely monitored by the MHRA, there are no current rules around antibiotic supply. This is something we will consider carefully as our world-leading work on antimicrobial resistance continues.”

O’Neill’s review stressed that it was local populations whose health was most harmed by pharmaceutical pollution. India has become the epicentre of the global antibiotic resistance crisis, due to rampant overuse and misuse of the drugs in human medicine and livestock farming, as well as bad practice by factories.

A study published in The Lancet medical journal last year estimated the deaths of 58,000 newborn Indian babies a year were attributable to blood poisoning from infections resistance to antibiotics.

Dr J. V. Reddy, the chief doctor at Gandhi Hospital in Hyderabad, a state-run hospital with 1,200 beds, told the Bureau that half of all samples sent for testing, including blood and urine samples taken from patients seeking treatment, contained drug-resistant bacteria.

This included Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteria and E.coli, Klebsiella and Pseudomonas bacteria – most of which contained enzymes which can break down penicillin and cephalosporin antibiotics.

Some E.coli and Klebsiella found were also resistant to carbapenems, last resort antibiotics given when bacteria have become resistant to other types. “Every three days a patient at the hospital dies of sepsis, with antibiotic resistance contributing to these deaths”, Dr Reddy said.

Overuse of antibiotics, the drugs being given for the wrong illnesses, and multiple types being given in one go exacerbates the problem, as well as patients using them irregularly. By the time they arrive at Gandhi hospital, most people have already been prescribed several antibiotics, he said.

Resistance spreading from India, around the world

Resistance spreads from India back into the rest of the world. An enzyme called NDM-1, which makes bacteria resistant to carbapenems, was first detected in 2008 in a patient who had been treated in a New Delhi hospital. It has now spread to countries across the world, including the UK.

Anji Reddy, a former farmer, was one of 13 people to lose vision in one of their eyes after an outbreak of a resistant infection. The 70-year-old, from a village near Hyderabad, went to the city’s Sarojini Devi Eye Hospital on June 30 for a cataract operation on his right eye.

A few days after the surgery, doctors removed his bandages and found his eye red, swollen and seeping with pus. Tests revealed it was infected with Klebsiella and E.coli bacteria that was resistant to antibiotics.

It is believed the solution used to irrigate his eyes during the surgery was contaminated. Three months later, Mr Reddy is still in constant pain and can no longer work to provide for his family.

“I cannot do anything”, he told the Bureau. “Earlier I used to tend to farm animals, clean the litter. I used do some digging. But now I cannot even see the path to walk.”

Thousands like Mr Reddy fall ill with drug resistant infections every year in India.

Andrew Wasley is an investigative journalist specialising in food issues. He’s co-founder of the award-winning investigative agency Ecostorm and a previous editor of The Ecologist magazine. His book, ‘The Ecologist Guide to Food‘, was published in 2014. Follow Andrew Wasley on Twitter: @Andrew_Wasley

Madlen Davies is a reporter Reporter at the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, currently investigating antibiotic resistance. Follow her on Twitter @madlendavies. If you have any stories or tips please contact Madlen Davies.

This article was originally published by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism and is reproduced with kind permission of the author. A version of this story appeared in the i newspaper. Get all of TBIJ’s antibiotic resistance updates on Twitter: @TBIJAntibiotics

Note: The Bureau’s antibiotic resistance work is funded by Changing Markets. Changing Markets commissioned the investigative agency Ecostorm to collect the Indian water samples. Ecostorm was co-founded by Andrew Wasley, a co-author of this story.

Humanity has now entered a new climate reality era, with carbon dioxide concentrations expected to remain above the level of 400 parts per million throughout 2016 and for many generations to come, the World Meteorological Organization says.

The WMO, the United Nations system’s leading agency on weather, climate and water, says the globally averaged concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached “the symbolic and significant milestone of 400 parts per million“ for the first time in 2015 and surged again to new records in 2016 on the back of the very powerful El Niño event.

CO₂ levels reached the 400 ppm barrier for certain months during 2015 and in certain places, but they have never done so on a global average basis for the entire year. The WMO says in its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin that the growth spurt in CO₂ was fuelled by El Niño, which started in 2015 and had a strong impact well into this year.

This, it says, triggered droughts in tropical regions and reduced the capacity of ‘sinks’ like forests, vegetation and the oceans to absorb CO_2. These sinks currently absorb about half of CO₂ emissions, but there is a risk that they could become saturated, increasing the proportion of carbon dioxide which stays in the atmosphere.

A 37% increase in ‘radiative forcing’ in 25 years

Between 1990 and 2015, the Bulletin says, there was a 37% increase in radiative forcing – the warming effect on the climate – because of long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from industrial, agricultural and domestic activities.

“The year 2015 ushered in a new era of optimism and climate action with the Paris climate change agreement. But it will also make history as marking a new era of climate change reality with record high greenhouse gas concentrations”, said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas. “The El Niño event has disappeared. Climate change has not.”

“The real elephant in the room is carbon dioxide, which remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years and in the oceans for even longer. Without tackling CO₂ emissions, we cannot tackle climate change and keep temperature increases to below 2°C above the pre-industrial era.

“It is therefore of the utmost importance that the Paris Agreement does indeed enter into force well ahead of schedule on 4 November and that we fast-track its implementation.”

The WMO Bulletin also addresses the problem of rising concentrations of methane, the second most important long-lived greenhouse gas, which contributes about 17% of radiative forcing. About 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources like wetlands and termites, with the rest coming from human activities like cattle breeding, rice growing, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning.

Atmospheric methane reached a new high of about 1,845 parts per billion (ppb) in 2015 and is now 256% of its pre-industrial level. Nitrous oxide’s atmospheric concentration in 2015 was about 328 parts per billion, 121% of pre-industrial levels. 

A ‘scientific base’ for UNFCCC’s Marrakech meeting next month

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin provides a scientific base for decision-making, and the WMO has released it ahead of the UN climate change negotiations to be held in the Moroccan city of Marrakech from 7-18 November. They will be seeking to translate the Agreenent into an effective way of coping with the new climate reality era the WMO has identified.

The Bulletin says the pre-industrial level of about 278 ppm of CO₂ represented a balance between the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, have altered the natural balance and in 2015 globally averaged levels were 144% of pre-industrial levels. The increase of  CO₂ from 2014 to 2015 was larger than the previous year and the average over the previous 10 years.

The Bulletin says the last El Niño, as well as reducing the capacity of vegetation to absorb CO₂, led to an increase in CO₂ emissions from forest fires. According to the Global Fire Emissions Database, CO₂ emissions in equatorial Asia – where there were serious forest fires in Indonesia in August-September 2015 – were more than twice as high as the 1997-2015 average.

Drought also has a big impact on CO₂ absorption by vegetation,  and scientists saw similar effects during the 1997-98 El Niño.

Alex Kirby writes for Climate News Network, where this article was originally published (CC BY-ND).